“Hmm, guess I got lucky!” Yuto bashfully smiled, trying to appear modest.
“Oh no… I thought that you would expect me to play rock in order to draw against your rock or to beat your scissors”. I reached for my glass of water but my hand was trembling so much that I accidentally spilt both of our glasses. “Oh my! I am so sorry! Please accept my apology, I don’t know how that happened!”
“It’s ok, It’s ok. Please don’t worry about it, I know it was an accident.”
This was interesting.
From the defender’s view point, you absolutely could not allow your opponent to score one point in the first round. You would have to read your opponent perfectly in the next two rounds to win the match, so you should never play scissors in the first round. Once the attacker realises this, they can determine that the defender will either play paper or rock.
In other words, the attacker should play scissors or paper. I don’t have that much info on how smart he is, but most people could think this far ahead. A smart opponent would be cautious that their opponent would think so far ahead, but I’ve been managing his expectations by intentionally making myself look like a fool.
Most people would reach this point of the analysis and have no idea how to figure out if the attacker plays scissors or paper. When playing with people you know, there are some ideas you can exploit, but against a stranger, you run into the “wine in front of me” concept. So how can you create an advantage against a stranger? The issue is you don’t have any information on your opponent’s decision making process, so it follows that if you gain information, you gain an advantage. So how can you do this?
The first option is to pay close attention to your opponent’s body language, face and tension in their arm and fingers as each word ‘Rock’, ‘Paper’, and ‘Scissors’ are said. Most people will have subtle tells that show up when they hear the word that they are thinking of playing.
The problem with this is that everyone has different physical tells. I might see Yori’s lips part for a split second or I might notice Mei take in a light breath after saying her option, but I’ve known them for years. It’s impossible to know what’s a subtle tell, and what’s a random movement against a stranger. By the time you figure it out, you’d already have enough data to make a much stronger plan based on your opponent’s psychology. If you understand it well enough, you can ignore all random twitches or breaths. After all, what if they have a twitch because they’re just nervous?
I briefly analysed everything I knew about him. He's a fairly confident and intelligent guy. He didn’t seem panicked when I woke up, and he was judging me for acting recklessly. He also understood that complying with Keiko’s demands was the best choice. After that, his only question focused on what she meant by a strategic decision.
That’s why I thought he was most likely to play Rock. He was confident that I’d reach the conclusion “It’s way too risky for me to play scissors. He knows that, so he won’t play rock. That’s exactly why I should play with scissors!” Then, he would play rock anyways to counter me.
That’s why I wasn’t disappointed or nervous when he played rock and beat my scissors anyway. I decided to play scissors because I viewed this first match as an opportunity to gain data, rather than a match that had to be won. I already had a good basis for my psychological profile of him, but throwing this round gave me something much more important than his one point advantage. I had now confirmed two key pieces of information that I would need to win.
- My opponent has an ego big enough that I can exploit.
- My opponent is confident in his strategic capabilities.
I began thinking my opponent was arrogant upon hearing I bid 2047 points. Admittedly, I didn’t do that with any information gathering intentions, but the way he reacted was a big mistake. I recalled what he said.
“2047? That’s random, huh?”
He gave a polite little laugh, but I could see through that facade. It was the type of laugh that was meant to sound lighthearted, but I’m certain that he meant for it to feel condescending. I know he was internally laughing at how stupid he thought I was. Once he determined I wouldn’t be a threat, he took the initiative and gave me his name for no explicit reason. I reasoned that he did this because he no longer felt threatened in this situation. That was a simple mistake that conveyed how he now felt relaxed. The fact that he would play rock after all of the basic reasoning means one of two things.
- My opponent isn’t capable of thinking that far ahead
- My opponent is capable of thinking that far ahead, but either
- Thought I wasn’t capable of thinking that far ahead
- Thought I was capable of thinking that far ahead, but that I would play scissors for another reason
I knew he didn’t lack the ability to think that far ahead. If he wasn’t that smart, then he wouldn’t have confidence in himself. He either underestimated me, or assumed I’d make an unexpected move for a different reason.
I’m confident that he currently thinks I’m not capable of thinking that far ahead. I had spilled our glasses for two reasons. The second would become apparent later, but the first reason was that I wanted to see his reaction. In a stressful situation like this, most people would be on edge and would be easily agitated. It would be normal for someone to be annoyed or upset. However, he reacted in a very kind and supportive way. This was because he thought he was superior to me. He thought I was pitiful. If everything goes according to plan, allowing me to pick up on this so quickly would cost him the game.
If you stumble upon this narrative on Amazon, be aware that it has been stolen from Royal Road. Please report it.
I’d begun setting my trap. This was why it was so important that I let him beat me. Ego is a spectrum. People that are truly exceptional understand that they can be face to face with an equal or superior rival at any moment. Their ego and confidence is backed by their life experience of being superior to most people they have encountered, but they have also come face to face with defeat.
This is why they know that a completely random stranger might beat them in any given game at any given moment. However, for talented individuals that don’t reach this threshold, they get caught in the delusion that because they’re the strongest person they know, they must be stronger than everyone else they come across.
Applying this analysis to Yuto with such limited information was a calculated gamble, and while I’m not entirely sure yet, it’s the best option with the data I’ve gathered so far. The reward far outweighed the risk. If I apply this analysis to Yuto and it’s correct, this would be the groundwork to create a winning plan. If I was wrong, I would only miss out on 2500 points and I would have time to adapt.
Regardless, I had gauged that his ego lies in the threshold where, if he thinks his opponent is significantly weaker than him, he’ll ignore the possibility that they might outthink him. In other words, his actions would become more predictable. Additionally, it would inflict a lot of psychological damage to him if his opponent suddenly showed their superiority. These are the levers I’ll use. When the time’s right, I won’t hesitate to push them both.
“Are you both ok with continuing the game, or should I get some towels to clean this up?” Keiko wanted us to continue the game, presumably because it wouldn’t last long. I understood this, but I wanted to see what Yuto would say.
“Yes, that would be fine, neither of us actually got wet and it’s not like the table is important in this game. The table doesn’t actually matter, does it? We’re here to play the game after all.”
He had directed that question at me. He didn’t ask if I was ok with the game continuing, but instead was trying to corner me into agreeing. He was taking the initiative and trying to corner me to make me panic even more. Given the impression that I had given him, I can’t blame him for doing this.
The only reason it was a mistake is because it’s just giving me more information. It’s just giving me more confidence in all of my reads on him, but I can’t fault him for that. Given what I’d shown him, he was making the right choices. It’s just that his profile of me was built on the lies I gave him.
“Umm, yeah, you’re right”. I meekly gave in to what he said.
“In that case, let’s continue the game. Yuto, tell me when you would like to begin the next round.”
“Actually, I think I’d like to start the next round right now”
“Very well, let’s get started”
I had begun setting a trap that revolves around getting Yuto into a sense of security and confidence. Taking away that security by depriving him of points would undermine all the work I’ve done. Right now, I wanted to choose the option that would give him 0.5 points.
“Rock, Paper, Scissors, Shoot!”
“The attacker’s paper draws against the defender’s paper. The attacker earns 0.5 points. The attacker has a total of 1.5 points. This concludes the first match of this game. 4547 points will be deposited into the attacker’s account. You now have 30 seconds to enter your bid for the next round. Please refrain from speaking until the bidding is over.” Keiko asked us to sit in silence while we bid, so we didn’t talk about that round.
I was right. I knew he would go with paper. I thought that he wouldn’t expect me to anticipate he would use the same strategy twice in a row. After all, I’ve portrayed myself in a way where most people wouldn't expect me to see that far ahead. I could have gone rock to let him gain one point, but I didn’t want him to catch on to the fact that I intentionally lost this match.
This was now the most important part of the match. I have to bid carefully. Currently, I have 453 extra points to bid with. I need to use these effectively. I need to win the attacking role whilst also saving as many points as I can for the next match. I observed Yuto very carefully. Once he finished his bid, he placed his phone face down on the table.
“Your 30 seconds are up. Please reveal your bids to each other.”
I already knew that he would take the initiative and speak first, but I wanted to see what he would say.
“Since I went first last time, why don’t you tell me what you bid first this time?” Yuto smiled.
“Ok, that seems fair. I bid 5753 points. I wanted to go back to having a round number, and after losing like that I wanted to try my luck with the attacking role whilst also having enough points to try and attack again during the next game”
Using logic and my read on Yuto’s psychological profile, I had reasoned that Yuto, thinking he was far superior to me, would try to win a decisive battle as the attacker in this match, whilst leaving 2000 points left over just in case I won this match. He had 7500 points entering this bid. If I was correct, he would bet 5500 points.
If I wanted to minimise my risk, I could have bid 5501 points, but that wasn’t what I needed right now. If I beat him by one point, it’d be obvious that I predicted him perfectly and he’d realise something’s wrong. Instead, I need him to keep thinking he’s in control of this game. That’s why I made up the excuse of wanting to go back to a round number. That being said, this wasn’t foolproof.
I could be wrong.
But with my limited info, this was the best choice.
“Oh, ok. I bid 5500 points so you’re attacking.” Yuto leaned back in his chair, still smiling as he slouched into his seat. His body language screamed relaxation, as though he were certain of his victory. He didn’t seem fazed by what just happened. He must think I got lucky and that it’ll be easy to defend against me.
“In that case, let’s start this round right now. Is that ok Keiko?”
“That’s perfectly fine,” she replied.
“Wait- hold on a sec!” sputtered Yuto.
“Rock, Paper, Scissors, Shoot!”
“The attacker’s Scissors beats the defender's paper. The attacker has earned 0.5 points. The attacker has a total of 0.5 points.”